# What are the four qualitative forecasting approaches that

BSOP 209 Operations Analysis

Week 1

BSOP 209 Week 1 Assignment:

Homework

Complete the following problems from Chapter 4 in your text. The Homework Problems Rubric is in Doc Sharing.

Problem 4.2 a, b and cProblem 4.6 a, b and cProblem 4.9 a, b, c and d

Week 2

Chapter 4 Forecasting, Homework

4.24 Howard Weiss, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for bass drums may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Stone Temple Pilots during the previous month. Weiss has collected the data shown in the following table:

a) Graph these data to see whether a linear equation might describe the relationship between the group’s television shows and bass drum sales.

Week 2 Quiz:

(TCO 1) For a moving average forecast to be of any use to us, what assumption must be true?(TCOs 3 and 4) In a regression equation, what is y hat?(TCOs 1 and 2) Given the following data, calculate the two-year moving averages for years 5 through 10.(TCOs 3, 4 and 5) While conducting an accounting audit of their finished goods inventory, Farmer’s Market clerks were able to construct the following data one of their nonseasonal baskets. (a) Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the equation). (b) Calculate forecasts for the first four months of the next year.

Week 3

Week 3 Assignment:

S7.17

Markland Manufacturing intends to increase capacity by overcoming a bottleneck operation by adding new equipment. Two vendors have presented proposals. The fixed costs for proposal A are $50,000, and for proposal B, $70,000. The variable cost for A is $12.00, and for B, $10.00. The revenue generated by each unit is $20.00.

a) What is the break-even point in units for proposal A?

Discussion Questions

1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2011.

2. What revenues are to be expected in 2010 and 2011?

3. Discuss the school’s options

Week 4

BSOP 209 Week 4 Assignment Answer

Week 4 Quiz

(TCO 6) What is the first step in solving a break-even analysis using a graphic approach?(TCO 7) Define NPV.(TCO 9) What limits the use of a graphical solution to LP?(TCO 8) What are the three parts of a wait-line system?(TCO 8) In reference to queuing, what is a limited or finite population?(TCO 8) What does FIFO mean?(TCO 8) Describe or define a negative exponential-probability distribution.(TCO 8) Which waiting-line model has a dependent relationship between the length of the queue and the arrival rate?(TCOs 6 and 7) XYZ plating is going ahead on an expansion project. They will be able to earn $300 per hour and run 3,000 hours per year. What is the net present value for the next five years with an interest rate of 6%?

Week 5

Week 5 Linear Programming Concept Paper

Week 5 Linear Programming Homework Problem

Week 5 Graph 1& 2

Week 6

Quantitative Module A Decision-Making Tools_Homework Problem

Week 6 Quiz

(TCO 14) Briefly discuss the decision methods used when there is complete uncertainty as to which state in a decision environment may occur. (Points : 10)(TCOs 10,11 and 12) Chad’s Pottery Barn has enough clay to make 24 small vases or 6 large vases. He has only enough of a special glazing compound to glaze 16 of the small vases or 8 of the large vases. Let X1 = the number of small vases and X2 = the number of large vases.The smaller vases sell for $3 each, and the larger vases would bring $9 each.(TCO 13, 14) XYZ coating company has reviewed four new processes for improving their coating line. The four processes, labeled A, B, C, and D use different technology and have different capacities. All the processes have the same level of production and the lifetime.

Week 7

Week 7 Case Study 2; Southwestern University (Answer Worksheet)

Week 7 Case Study 2; Southwestern University (Answer)

Week 7 Case Study 2; Southwestern University (Worksheet)

Week 7 Case Study 2; Southwestern University

Week 8

(TCO 8) What are the three parts of a wait-line system? (Points : 15)(TCO 9) What is the objective function of LP? (Points : 15)(TCO 11 & 12) What are two of the steps in a simplex maximization problem? (Points : 15)(TCO 10) What will happen if the right-hand side of a constraint is changed? (Points : 15)(TCO 15 & 16) What are three of the basic steps that both PERT and CPM follow? (Points : 15)(TCO 16) What is a “dummy activity?” (Points : 15)(TCO 3, 4, & 5) What is the formula for linear regression? Define each part. (Points : 15)(TCO 1) What are the four qualitative forecasting approaches that are available to us? (Points : 15)(TCO 6) Describe the “revenue junction.” (Points : 15)(TCO 8) What are the three parts of a typical queuing system? (Points : 15)(TCO 8) When designing a waiting line system, what “qualitative” concerns need to be considered? (Points : 15)(TCO 8) What is the expected value with perfect information? (Points : 15)Page Two

(TCO 1 &2) What is the forecast for Aug based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 3, 1.5? (largest weight is for most recent data)(TCO 3, 4, and 5) The XYZ Paint Shop owns and operates a dozen shops in southern Iowa. Their signature paint is black epoxy. Sales (X, in millions of dollars) is related to Profits (Y, in hundreds of thousands of dollars) by the regression equation Y = 6.321 + 0.65X. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $25 million? $65 million? (Points : 30)(TCO 6 and 7) A product is currently made in a job shop, where fixed costs are $4,500 per year and variable cost is $10 per unit. The firm sells the product for $70 per unit. What is the break-even point for this operation? What is the profit (or loss) on a demand of 220 units per year? (Points : 30)(TCO 13, 14) XYZ coating company has reviewed four new processes for improving their coating line. The four processes, labeled A, B, C, and D use different technology and have different capacities. All the processes have the same level of production and the lifetime. The four states of nature represent four levels of consumer acceptance of the firm’s products. Values in the table are net present value of future profits in millions of dollars. Forecasts indicate that there is a 0.4 probability of acceptance level 1, 0.3 chance of acceptance level 2, 0.6 chance of acceptance level 3, and 0.5 change of acceptance level 4………..Using the criterion of expected monetary value, which production alternative should be chosen? (Points : 30)